Teenagers are bored with Facebook. But why is that such bad news?

MySpace is an astonishing use of new technology, which links people to one another, and allows them to share news, views, photos and comments. It is extraordinarily popular, particularly with younger people, and is growing every day. This makes it one of the most valuable properties on the internet and set to dominate personal media for years to come.

None of which is true, of course. In fact, MySpace is an archaic website which, despite many re-inventions, is barely clinging on to its server and will surely be abandoned sooner rather than later. But half a dozen years ago, my opening paragraph would have been pretty accurate, and nobody would have suspected this wonderful innovation was doomed. That's how we view Facebook today. Investors and backers are so confident that the FB phenomenon will continue and expand for decades, the company is highly valued (overvalued, some would argue) and attracted eye-watering sums when it floated. This view is wildly optimistic, however, as it cocks a snook at the history of online success stories. All the evidence suggests Facebook's star will wane one day, and here comes the latest wobble.

"A fall of almost thirty percent in teen users is well outside any margin of error and surely indicates a problem."

The Washington Post is reporting a survey from Piper Jaffray (an investment bank) which suggests teenagers and Facebook have fallen out of love. From late 2013 to spring 2014, use of the platform among those aged 13 to 19 collapsed from 72 percent to 45 percent. Which means fewer than half of the teenagers surveyed said they now use Facebook. Of course, as any follower of political polls will tell you, surveys often produce surprising numbers which then prove unreliable. Nevertheless, a fall of almost thirty percent is well outside any margin of error and surely indicates a problem.

So, why would a website used by around a fifth of the world's population care about the loss of a few members? The clue is in the age range of those moving away from the network. 13 to 19 is a key demographic for advertisers. The younger members don't have much disposable income, but are at an age when they're very keen to appear 'cool' - and that means choosing brands which will add kudos to their lifestyles and take them into later life. The older set are on the cusp of adulthood and as they are largely unmarried and socially active, are very handy to acquire as consumers. Any value Facebook has is predicated on its ability to deliver audiences to advertisers, so any slip in that offering cannot be ignored.

Does this mean the Facebook bubble is about to burst?  Will it soon be joining 'Friend Reunited' in the social media morgue? I doubt it. Far too many people have staked far too much on Facebook's continued success for that to happen. Just like those wretched banks, it is really too big to fail. That said, this sort of data must set alarm bells ringing. If further surveys show continuing drops in young users, Facebook executives will need to act quickly to pull them back. Not an impossible task, but certainly a challenge, and one the markets won't like at all.

The lesson here is a simple but crucial one: nothing lasts forever, and complacency is for fools. Facebook must evolve and evolve again if it is to avoid being MySpace 2.0.

Magnus Shaw is a copywriter, blogger and consultant