I remember having a conversation with my father around February this year about Donald Trump. “He’ll be in prison this time next year,” he said, “He’ll be back in The White House this time next year,” I said. Never in my life had I wanted to be wrong more.
But here we are. Now we’re looking down the barrel of at least another 4 years with a genuinely unhinged man and convicted felon behind the wheel of the world’s most consequential democracy and once again, I’ve never wanted to be wrong more. I genuinely hope I have “Trump Derangement Syndrome”.
Lenilson Lima
Whether or not this marks the start of some kind of monstrous “Trump Dynasty” remains to be seen. Frankly I think that’s a little far-fetched but given that he’ll most likely have control of the house and the senate this time and will be unshackled from the institutional guardrails that were in place last time, it’s certainly not impossible. More likely, however, it’ll just mean another four more years of division, ideological fury and lots and lots of bullshit.
In the short-term, however, my main concern is how the news will impact the industries that put food on my table. So, today, I’ll be putting my own personal prejudices aside and focusing on exactly how a second Trump term could impact those of us in the creative world, with the help of some of the industry’s most respected leading voices.
The Business Perspective: Favouring Deregulation and Tax Cuts
Sir Martin Sorrell, founder and executive chairman of S4 Capital, paints a rather pragmatic view. “Good for the US economy,” he states directly. According to Sorrell, US businesses, often reluctant to voice their preferences, favour Trump’s policies, which champion low taxes and reduced regulation. The prospect of lower corporate and personal taxes, along with the Republican dominance across the government, suggests a strong business-friendly atmosphere.
Companies with significant US exposure, both domestic and international, could stand to benefit. However, the new administration’s approach may be less favourable for Europe, where tariffs might make exports to the US more challenging.
“US business doesn’t like to admit it, but they prefer Trump”
South America may see a unique advantage, given its proximity to the US and potential role in supply chains, but Asia faces potential setbacks, especially in the face of tariffs and an assertive “America First” stance.
Meanwhile, looming uncertainties with China, Russia, and the Middle East add layers of complexity. As Sorrell notes, “the implications are less clear,” with possible confrontations on the horizon regarding US-China trade relations, pressure on Ukraine, and a heightened stance against Iran.
Navigating the Unpredictable: Adapting to Change and Cultural Shifts
For Chris Camacho, CEO of Cheil UK, the challenge lies in Trump’s volatility. “In reality, we don’t know what this Trump win means longer term,” he says, pointing out that the president’s decisions are often unpredictable, making planning nearly impossible for businesses.
Camacho emphasizes that for agencies, helping clients navigate potentially transformative economic shifts will be essential. Companies involved in global supply chains, or in highly regulated sectors like finance, may adjust budgets and strategies in anticipation of new regulatory and tax frameworks.
“We don’t know what this Trump win means longer term”
Brands are also expected to monitor a shifting cultural landscape. Trump’s close association with Elon Musk suggests that X (formerly Twitter) will remain central to Trump’s messaging, presenting brand safety concerns for advertisers wary of political divisions.
As Camacho notes, these developments mean that marketers must consider not just the economic environment but also the cultural undercurrents shaping how and where brands show up.
The Media Ecosystem: Moving Beyond Legacy Channels
James Kirkham, co-founder of Iconic, observes that the Trump campaign capitalized on the limitations of traditional media, embracing platforms like Rumble and podcasts for raw, unfiltered engagement. For Kirkham, Trump’s media strategy highlights a shift: legacy media may now be "white noise," overshadowed by direct channels that pull audiences into the conversation.
“This is the media now. Chaotic but influential”
Trump’s second term promises a continuation of this media tactic, with a focus on cultivating influence outside mainstream narratives. As Kirkham remarks, “This is the media now. Chaotic but influential, a direct tap into public consciousness.”
As businesses grapple with these shifts, Kirkham believes it’s crucial to recognize the waning grip of legacy platforms and the growing impact of unorthodox channels on public opinion and, by extension, marketing strategies.
The Role of Government Technology: Business as Usual Amid Political Change
Dominic Sale from Code and Theory’s Government Experience practice, however, brings a grounded perspective, emphasizing continuity. He notes that even as administrations change, the US government’s digital services remain tethered to ongoing operational expenses and cybersecurity demands, leaving little room for shifting priorities.
"The digital infrastructure will likely remain steady"
“Anyone who’s lived inside this world… wouldn’t bet against the government at large just keeping calm and carrying on,” Sale asserts. This suggests that despite political turbulence, the digital infrastructure will likely remain steady, with most budgetary decisions aligned with historical priorities rather than partisan influence.
Paul Pateman
The UK Perspective: Navigating Diverging Paths with the US
Chris Woodward, CEO of CTI Digital, highlights that the UK’s relationship with the US may face new turbulence. Trump’s business-friendly policies stand in stark contrast to the UK’s recent budgetary focus on higher taxes and spending.
"For UK-based agencies, the greater concern may lie with domestic tax policies"
This divergence may strain the so-called “special relationship” between the two nations, yet Woodward remains confident in its resilience. For UK-based agencies, the greater concern may lie with domestic tax policies and regulatory challenges rather than any direct impacts from the US election.
A Familiar Chaos: Trump’s Return as an “America First” Champion
Tom Stone, co-founder of Re:act, captures a sentiment shared by many outside the US: “The word I’d use to describe the global atmosphere right now? Chaos.” For Stone, Trump’s return to the White House rekindles memories of a term defined by unpredictability.
“The word I’d use to describe the global atmosphere right now? Chaos”
From Stone’s perspective, this unpredictability may spell new challenges for the UK, particularly as it navigates its post-Brexit landscape. Trump’s possible tariffs and isolationist stance could force the UK to consider closer alignment with Europe, particularly on issues like Ukraine, where Trump’s stance might diverge from broader EU policies.
The Consumer Confidence Question: Short-Term Stability, Long-Term Uncertainty
Finally, Barney Worfolk-Smith, chief growth officer at Daivid, points to the US consumer as a critical factor. “What matters to us is the spending confidence of the US consumer,” he explains. With an emphasis on economic stability, Worfolk-Smith suggests that a Trump win could support consumer confidence in the short term, lending stability to markets.
“Long term… there are question marks”
But, as he acknowledges, “long term… there are question marks” over the impact of tariffs on consumers’ purchasing power, leaving businesses to brace for potential swings in demand amid economic policy shifts.
The Broader Societal Threat: Implications of a Second Trump Term
Lauren Kay-Lambert, Co-Managing Director of social impact communications agency Shape History, offers a stark perspective on the potential societal impact of a second Trump administration. “I have no issue naming this for what it is,” she says unequivocally. “A second Trump presidency is an incredible threat to our entire society—he’s boasted of being a ‘dictator’ on day one of his second term. Completely terrifying.”
For Kay-Lambert, the risks extend beyond political rhetoric, touching on economic, social, and environmental issues with potentially severe implications for business stability. She highlights that Trump’s proposed 10% tariff on imported goods could set the stage for inflation and even a global trade war, driving up costs for American families and straining already stretched household budgets. These tariffs may also lead to rising operational expenses for businesses that rely on global supply chains, reducing profitability and creating market volatility. “Increased costs for American families” would place added pressure on discretionary spending, potentially impacting industries that depend on consumer confidence and expendable income.
“A second Trump presidency is an incredible threat to our entire society"
From a workforce perspective, Trump’s policies regarding reproductive rights could further impact women’s participation in the labor force. Policies limiting reproductive healthcare access would “sideline women from the workforce,” as Kay-Lambert puts it, with ripple effects for family finances and pressure on an already complex healthcare system. This would not only compromise gender equality in the workplace but also place stress on sectors relying on female workforce participation.
Perhaps the gravest implication Kay-Lambert raises is Trump’s projected environmental impact. An estimated additional 4 billion tonnes of U.S. emissions by 2030 would severely impede global climate goals, undermining efforts to control global warming and shifting environmental costs onto future generations. For businesses, this sets a precarious stage where long-term sustainability becomes more challenging. Companies that have invested heavily in sustainability may find their efforts undermined by regulatory rollbacks and rising carbon outputs.
Final Thoughts
So, what’s the overall takeaway here? Honestly, it seems to be a surprising amount of uncertainty.
Even with four years of Trump already on record, there’s no clear consensus on what lies ahead. The prevailing sentiment among industry voices is cautious pragmatism, laced with an understanding that things may get worse before they get better.
Will it be pretty? Probably not. Will it be interesting? Absolutely.
