With the Super Bowl less than a week away, System1, the leading ad effectiveness agency, explores what we can expect from the big event this year in terms of the all-important (and increasingly expensive) ad slots.
The Super Bowl is TV advertising’s biggest night, and in the last few years it’s become more unique - and more important - than ever. The kind of huge, mass-market live audience it delivers is increasingly difficult to achieve. But the benefits of reaching such an audience haven’t changed. There is simply no other event that lets you get your brand in front of so many Americans at the same time. It’s a priceless brand-building opportunity.
Except “priceless” isn’t the most appropriate word when a Super Bowl slot costs roughly $7m, a figure that’s rising every year. The NFL and the broadcasters know how valuable their product and audience is to marketers. The big question, though, is this: is that eye-watering price tag preventing brands taking risks?
The Super Bowl historically has been a time when America’s brands put their best, funniest and most emotional material in front of viewers. At System1 we used to expect multiple ads getting 5-Stars (our top score, for an ad with exceptional emotional appeal and brand-building potential). But in the last couple of years we’ve seen fewer of these top-scoring ads. In 2022, for the first time, not a single ad broadcast during the game hit 5-Stars.
“What to expect from the Super Bowl LVII ads?” is a good question. But in the decade-plus we’ve been testing Super Bowl ads with real consumer audiences the answers have rarely been more predictable.
Celebrities, and lots of them. Humour, but nothing too edgy. Logos and product messages in full effect. And a sprinkling of Brand Purpose on top. All elements that help justify that $7m spend - but which also make Super Bowl ads feel formulaic, not exciting.
Don’t get us wrong - there is nothing wrong with any of these tactics for Super Bowl success. We could point to brilliant 5-Star ads from recent years which use them all. For celebrities, there was Bill Murray’s return to Groundhog Day for Jeep - Michelob Ultra this year are bringing back comedy classic Caddyshack and will be hoping for similar nostalgic delight. For humor, not much beats Doritos’ legendary series of Super Bowl ads like their tale of dogs trying to buy snacks. This year, Busch Light promise to get us laughing with the outdoor-themed “Busch Guide”.
As for branding and product placement, Tide’s award-winning “It’s A Tide Ad” takeover proved you could do it with flair. And Microsoft’s ads for its XBox adaptive controller put purpose-driven design in the spotlight. We’re crossing our fingers that Super Bowl LVII will bring ads with as much originality or heart-warming innovation as those.
That said, we’re also expecting to see some of the less successful trends in recent years continue. Some brands may try a salience-boosting “stunt” ad like Coinbase’s QR code screensaver or Burger King’s Andy Warhol eating a burger clip. Commentators love stunts - audiences generally don’t.
We’ll also see ads tapping into viral tech or social media trends. One of the few really good ads last year, from Boston Beer, saw Boston Dynamics’ robot dogs dancing at a keg party. Don’t be surprised if generative AI makes an appearance this year - in real or satirical form. And alongside superstars Missy Elliott and Jack Harlow, PepsiCo are promising a TikTok competition winner a Super Bowl slot.
Finally, there are always Super Bowl returnees and newcomers hoping to grab some attention. Coors has been away from the big game for 34 years - it’s back in 2023 with a much-anticipated ad from Droga5. Crown Royal whiskey are new this year, as is gambling firm FanDuel with a live ad. In our experience, the temptation for newcomers is always to try and cram in too much verbally and visually.
We’re already seeing trailers for some of these spots, including FanDuel and Michelob. Historically though, trailers don’t test very well and their scores - mostly in the 1-Star and 2-Star range - are poor predictors of success on the night. This year’s are no exception.
If brands do play it safe again at the Super Bowl that doesn’t mean they’ve wasted their money. With an audience this big, a good 3-Star or 4-Star ad that cuts through enough to get high brand recognition is still a good investment, provided marketers capitalise on a success and don’t immediately revert back to less engaging campaigns. But we’re hoping that this year some brands do try and really score big with audiences, and that what happens between the play matches the in-game action for emotion and thrills.
